dennisgorelik: 2020-06-13 in my home office (Default)
[personal profile] dennisgorelik
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https://news.usni.org/2020/04/17/navy-cdc-to-study-covid-19-outbreak-on-carrier-theodore-roosevelt
“As of today, 94 percent of Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers have been tested for COVID-19, with 660 positive and 3,920 negative results,” according to Friday’s COVID-19 report from the service. “4,059 sailors have moved ashore.”

On Thursday, the Navy announced the identity of a Theodore Roosevelt sailor who died from COVID-19 complications.
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Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is an optimistic case of Covid-19 fatality rate (because of younger and healthier military population vs overall society).
Out of 4,580 crewmembers - 1 crewmember died. That represents ~0.022% fatality rate.

If US population overall was as healthy as Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers are, then out of 330M people about 72,052 would die.
But realistically, the death rate would, probably, be closer to the Diamond Princess case (0.23% fatality rate).
If we assume more realistic fatality rate of 0.1%, then the US would have about 330,000 people died from Covid-19 (most of them undiagnosed).

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dennisgorelik: 2020-06-13 in my home office (Default)
Dennis Gorelik

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