Covid-19

[dennisgorelik]

Covid-19 reproduction strategy is to use kids as carriers by making sure that kids (and other people with a strong immune system) are not getting too sick when they are infected. That gives carriers plenty of time to spread Coronavirus to other people.

That suggests that Covid-19 is, actually, not as deadly as initial reports suggest. Most likely the number of infected people is heavily underreported.

If the number of people infected by Covid-19 is underreported 10x, and the number of people who died from Covid-19 is reported accurately, then Covid-19 mortality is overeported by 10x.

It is possible that Covid-19 mortality is comparable with mortality of a regular influenza (0.2%), but scientists inflated Covid-19 number to 2% by missing underreported infections.

"Oregon has first confirmed Covid-19 case" discussion on Hacker News

Comments

[juan_gandhi]

Sounds very reasonable.

[proben]

А разве дедли рейт от инфицированных считают, а не от заболевших? Другое дело, что легко заболевших никто не считал, они могут и к врачу не обращаться, но все-же явно меньше инфицированных.

[dennisgorelik]

> разве дедли рейт от инфицированных считают, а не от заболевших?

Правильно считать - от всей популяции.
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https://www.open.edu/openlearn/health-sports-psychology/health/epidemiology-introduction/content-section-2.1.1
To calculate a death rate the number of deaths recorded is divided by the number of people in the population
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Если так считать, то Coronavirus - вообще не очень страшная болезнь. Смертность, пока что, ниже, чем у других разновидностей гриппа.

Но во всяких пугающих статьях считают вообще непонятно что.